Was zeigt der Earnings-Kalender von SeasonAlpha?

Der Earnings-Kalender listet die Quartalsbericht-Termine (Report-Dates) einer Aktie auf und untersucht, wie sich Kurs und Volatilität typischerweise rund um diese Termine verhalten. Für jeden Termin werden, soweit von der Datenquelle geliefert, das berichtete Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS actual), die Analystenschätzung (EPS estimate) und die prozentuale Überraschung angezeigt. Daraus entstehen Kennzahlen wie der durchschnittliche absolute Earnings-Move sowie die realisierte Volatilität vor und nach dem Termin.

Woher stammen die Earnings-Termine und welche Aktien werden abgedeckt?

Die Earnings-Termine und EPS-Daten stammen aus historischen Quartalsergebnissen von Yahoo Finance, die Kursdaten aus der SeasonAlpha-Datenbank. Aktuell sind vor allem US-Aktien abgedeckt. Yahoo liefert je Abruf rund vier Quartale, sodass die Historie pro Aktie über die Zeit anwächst. Indizes, Futures, Crypto und ETFs haben keine Earnings; europäische und asiatische Werte folgen, sobald eine geeignete Datenquelle angebunden ist.

Warum steigt die Volatilität rund um Earnings-Termine?

Vor der Veröffentlichung der Quartalszahlen besteht Unsicherheit über das Ergebnis, was die Schwankungsbreite des Kurses erhöht. Nach der Bekanntgabe löst sich diese Unsicherheit auf und die realisierte Volatilität fällt häufig wieder ab, ein als Vola-Crush bekanntes Muster. Der Earnings-Kalender macht diesen typischen Anstieg vor und Rückgang nach dem Termin sichtbar. Es handelt sich um eine deskriptive Auswertung historischer Daten, nicht um eine Prognose.

Earnings Effect — Price Movement & Volatility

What does this page show? Analyses price behaviour and volatility around quarterly earnings: pre-earnings drift (price run-up before the release), the earnings-day move, post-earnings drift and the vola crush (decline in price fluctuation after the announcement). Where available: Beat vs. Miss breakdown.

Data Availability: Currently supported: US stocks (4 quarters per run, growing daily to up to 16 within a year). Indices, futures, crypto and ETFs have no earnings. European and Asian equities will follow once we connect a suitable data source.

Earnings Effect

Price movement & volatility around quarterly results

Methodology

Data Source: Price data from the SeasonAlpha database. Earnings dates and EPS data from Yahoo Finance (historical quarterly results).

t0 = Earnings Day (date of the quarterly results release). After-market reports are typically reflected in the price of the next trading day — this effect is visible in the t0/t+1 move.

Normalization: All event windows are normalised to the t0 closing price. Positive values mean: price above the earnings close.

Beat / Miss: "Beat" = EPS actual > EPS estimate; "Miss" = EPS actual < EPS estimate. Only available when Yahoo Finance provides EPS data.

Vola Crush: Measured as the average absolute daily return (|Δ%|) per day in the window. The typical rise before earnings (driven by uncertainty) and the decline afterwards (vola crush once uncertainty is resolved) are a well-known pattern in options markets.

Realised vol before earnings = avg |daily return| in the t-before trading days. Realised vol after earnings = avg |daily return| in the t-after trading days (t0 excluded).

Understanding the Earnings Calendar — Quarterly Report Dates, EPS & Volatility

The Earnings Calendar by SeasonAlpha shows a stock's upcoming and past quarterly report dates and places them in their seasonal price context. At its core is the so-called report date — the day a company publishes its quarterly results. For each date, where the data source provides it, the tool lists the actually reported earnings per share (EPS actual), the prior analyst consensus estimate (EPS estimate) and the percentage deviation (surprise). At a glance you see when a stock reported, whether it beat or missed expectations and how the price moved around the date. Earnings dates are among the most important recurring events in the trading year, because they occur regularly — usually four times a year — and can trigger above-average price reactions.

You read the dates as a timeline per ticker: each row in the earnings history represents one quarterly report, sorted from the most recent to the oldest. A beat means the reported EPS was above the estimate, a miss accordingly below it. Alongside you see the earnings move — the price change from one trading day before to one trading day after the report — as well as the return over the entire selected event window. Note: if a company reports after the close (after-market), the reaction is typically reflected only in the next trading day's price. Via the sidebar, the window before and after the date as well as the period under review can be freely adjusted to view the dates at different resolutions.

Methodically, the earnings dates and EPS data come from Yahoo Finance's historical quarterly results, while the underlying price data comes from the SeasonAlpha database. All event windows are normalized to the closing price on the earnings day (t0), so that positive values mean a price above the earnings close — in line with SeasonAlpha's consistent methodology of normalized returns rather than absolute price changes. A recurring pattern is elevated volatility around earnings: before the date the trading range rises due to uncertainty, and after the announcement it often falls again (vola crush). The tool measures this as the average absolute daily return per trading day in the window and reports the realized volatility before and after the date separately.

When interpreting the data, the limits of the data should be kept in mind. Currently the focus is on US stocks; Yahoo Finance delivers roughly four quarters per request, which is why the available earnings history per stock grows over time and may initially be short for newly added names. Indices, futures, crypto and ETFs have no earnings and are therefore not covered; European and Asian single stocks will follow once a suitable data source is connected. The Earnings Calendar is a statistical tool for context, not investment advice and not a forecast of future price reactions. Past earnings patterns do not guarantee future results — use the analysis as additional context for your own research.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the SeasonAlpha Earnings Calendar show? The Earnings Calendar lists a stock's quarterly report dates (report dates) and examines how price and volatility typically behave around those dates. For each date, where provided by the data source, the reported earnings per share (EPS actual), the analyst estimate (EPS estimate) and the percentage surprise are shown. From this come metrics such as the average absolute earnings move as well as the realized volatility before and after the date.

Where do the earnings dates come from and which stocks are covered? The earnings dates and EPS data come from Yahoo Finance's historical quarterly results, the price data from the SeasonAlpha database. Currently mainly US stocks are covered. Yahoo delivers roughly four quarters per request, so the history per stock grows over time. Indices, futures, crypto and ETFs have no earnings; European and Asian names will follow once a suitable data source is connected.

Why does volatility rise around earnings dates? Before the quarterly results are published there is uncertainty about the outcome, which increases the price's trading range. After the announcement this uncertainty resolves and realized volatility often falls again, a pattern known as the vola crush. The Earnings Calendar makes this typical rise before and fall after the date visible. It is a descriptive analysis of historical data, not a forecast.