How to read this chart: each line shows the probability history of one outcome. Steep lines = rapid market repricing, typically after FOMC meetings or CPI prints. When "0 cuts" rises while "2 cuts" falls, the market is pricing in a hawkish shift. The opposite = dovish shift.
Polymarket Forecasts — Fed Path, Crypto & Risk
Prediction market data as a second frame of reference alongside seasonality. Live via Polymarket Gamma + CLOB API.
What does this page show? —
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market. Traders stake real money (USDC) on specific outcomes — Fed decisions, recession, BTC price surges. The YES price between 0 and 1 directly reflects the implied market probability: 0.34 means the market sees a 34% chance for the outcome. Here you compare these collective market expectations with historical seasonality — three perspectives emerge: 1) Fed Path 2026 as a distribution over 0–12+ cuts, 2) Risk Traffic Light for tail events (recession, hike, emergency cut), 3) Crypto Divergence between the historical prior and market price. Sidebar: Filter by category, choose history period, select up to 10 markets for the explorer.
Fed Path 2026 — Probability Distribution
13 outcome markets from the Polymarket event "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?". Each bar shows the implied market probability for exactly that many cuts. The expected value (green line) is the probability-weighted sum.
How to read this chart: each bar is a separate Polymarket market — e.g. "Will the Fed cut exactly 3 times in 2026?". The height shows how much probability the market assigns to that outcome. The gold bar marks the most probable scenario. The green dashed line is the expected value — the probability-weighted average across all outcomes. Example: if it sits at 1.3, the market expects about 1.3 cuts on average, roughly 33 basis points of total reduction in 2026.
Fed Cuts Distribution Over Time
Risk Traffic Light — Tail Events & Macro
Four binary markets for scenarios outside the Fed baseline path. Red: historically elevated probability. Green: market sees this as unlikely.
How to read the traffic light: each tile shows a binary market (YES/NO). The percentage is the current implied probability for the YES outcome. Green = unusually low, neutral = baseline level, red = significantly elevated. Thresholds: Recession > 35% (red), Fed hike > 20%, emergency cut > 15%, negative GDP > 15%.
Risk Markets Over Time
How to read this chart: time history of the four risk markets. Correlated moves (all rising together) signal a genuine regime shift. Divergences (e.g. recession rising but negative GDP stays flat) point to market-specific news rather than general macro concern.
Crypto Divergence — BTC & ETH Target Probabilities
Horizontal ladders of price targets through end of 2026. Compare the market probabilities with your seasonal forecasts on the respective ticker pages.
How to read the ladder: each horizontal bar is a Polymarket for "will the price reach at least X by end of 2026?". The higher the price target, the lower the probability. The bar directly shows the implied market probability in percent. Typical reading: BTC ≥ $100k: 40% means the market sees a 40% chance that Bitcoin closes the year above $100k.
Divergence Analysis — Seasonality vs. Market
For each crypto target: the seasonal prior empirically calculated from price history (share of past years with a year-end return ≥ required performance from today). Compared to the current Polymarket probability. Green: seasonality higher than market (market underestimates). Red: seasonality lower than market.
How to read the table: Required = percentage return the current price still needs to reach the target by year-end. Market YES = current Polymarket probability. Seasonal Prior = share of past years in which this return from today's calendar date to year-end was actually achieved. Divergence = Seasonal Prior minus Market YES in percentage points. Positive (green): seasonality predicts a higher chance than the market — possible long trade if fundamentals align. Negative (red): market prices in more optimism than history justifies — caution.
History Explorer — Freely Selected Markets
Select up to 10 markets in the sidebar to compare their price paths. Divergences between markets reveal regime shifts (e.g. "no cuts" falls while "2 cuts" rises = market pricing in a dovish shift).
How to read this chart: all selected markets in one chart. Y-axis = probability in percent (0–100). Display mode: everything rising or falling together = shared market theme (e.g. all cut outcomes rising = dovish regime shift). Crossing lines between related markets often mark important repricing days (CPI, FOMC, jobs report).
All Markets — Catalogue Overview
26 markets from 7 Polymarket events. Click column headers to sort.
How to read the table: YES = current implied probability. 7d Δ = change versus the price 7 days ago in percentage points — positive values = market becoming more bullish on the outcome, negative = more bearish. Liquidity = volume in the active order book in USDC. Markets with < $20k liquidity are illiquid and their prices may be distorted — prefer more liquid markets for signals. Click column headers to sort.
Calibration — How reliable are Polymarket probabilities?
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Brier Score — Calibration Measure for Probability Forecasts
Formula:
Reference values:
0.00 = perfect forecaster · 0.15–0.20 = well calibrated · 0.25 = 50/50 noise · 0.50+ = systematically wrong
Important: Low Brier ≠ “usually correct”. If the market consistently says 30% and events occur in 30% of cases, Brier is low — even though “mostly NO” is the main outcome.
Polymarket clearly beats the base rate baseline (
Formula:
Brier = Mean((p − o)2) — Mean squared deviation between predicted probability p (0–1) and actual outcome o (1 = occurred, 0 = not).Reference values:
0.00 = perfect forecaster · 0.15–0.20 = well calibrated · 0.25 = 50/50 noise · 0.50+ = systematically wrong
Important: Low Brier ≠ “usually correct”. If the market consistently says 30% and events occur in 30% of cases, Brier is low — even though “mostly NO” is the main outcome.
Polymarket clearly beats the base rate baseline (
p·(1−p)) — the market forecasts are informative, not mere noise.Brier score analysis on historically resolved markets. When Polymarket says 70%, does the event actually occur in ~70% of cases?
Loading Brier statistics...
Methodology & Data Source
Data source: Polymarket Gamma API (metadata, snapshots) and CLOB prices-history (historical mid prices). Snapshots are updated hourly via scripts/polymarket_refresh.py, backfill every 24h.
What does YES price mean? The price in USDC per YES share. Since Polymarket markets are normalised to [0, 1] (1 USDC payout on YES resolution), the price equals the implied market probability. Example: YES = 0.34 means the market prices in a 34% probability for the outcome.
Liquidity: Volume in the active order book (USDC). Markets with <$20k liquidity are illiquid — their prices may be distorted.
Divergence example: Seasonality says BTC has historically gained +25% median in Q4 — but Polymarket prices only a 10% probability for BTC > $150k. That is a crowd-vs-history signal: either the crowd is underestimating seasonality, or current factors argue against it.