Market Outlook
Midterm Election Year 2026: After the Low Comes the Recovery — What the Presidential Cycle Says About Q4
Midterm election year stock market 2026: midterm years bring the deepest drawdown in the presidential cycle — then average +31% recovery. The data shows.
September 2, 2026
^GSPC
Market Outlook
Full Moon on the Stock Market? What the Dow Jones Really Shows in July
Full moon on the stock market: the Dow Jones gains +0.45 % on average around the full moon. Only borderline across all months — but 90 % win rate in July.
July 15, 2026
^DJI
Market Outlook
QQQ TruePath 2026: What AI Seasonality Reveals for the Nasdaq 100
AI seasonality for the Nasdaq: QQQ TruePath finds the 5 years most similar to 2026 — averaging +39.8%. What drives the pattern path, and where its limits lie.
July 15, 2026
QQQ
Market Outlook
Google in July: Why Summer Is Alphabet's Strongest Market Month
Since 2011, July has been Google's strongest market month: +9% on average with 14 of 15 years positive. What drives the pattern — and where its limits lie.
June 14, 2026
GOOGL
Market Outlook
Sell in May 2026 — The Halftime Score Surprises
Sell in May 2026 at halftime: DAX and S&P 500 rise instead of falling. Why the trade-deal rally breaks the seasonal pattern — and what the data says for June.
May 14, 2026
^GSPC
Market Outlook
BTC $150k by End of 2026? Market Says 10%, History Disagrees
Polymarket prices only 9.5% for BTC ≥ $150k by end of 2026. History since 2014 achieves that in 25% of years — a 15.5pp divergence. What that means.
April 18, 2026
BTC-USD
Market Outlook
Ethereum 2026: Why the ETH Divergence Is Smaller Than Bitcoin's
BTC divergence on Polymarket: 15–18pp. ETH divergence: only 3–9pp. Why the market prices Ethereum 2026 more realistically than Bitcoin — with data.
April 18, 2026
ETH-USD
Market Outlook
Fed Cuts 2026: What Polymarket Prices In — and Why It Matters for Your Stocks
Polymarket prices only 1.3 Fed cuts through year-end 2026 — no hike, no recession. What the distribution of all 13 outcomes means for stocks.
April 18, 2026
^GSPC
Market Outlook
VIXpiration April 2026: What Happens to the S&P 500 on VIX Expiration Day?
VIXpiration on April 15, 2026: how VIX options expiry historically impacts the S&P 500. 21 years of data show clear patterns in return and volatility.
April 13, 2026
SPY
Market Outlook
May Seasonality: Tesla vs. Apple — Who Beats the Sell-in-May Effect?
Tesla vs Apple in May: which stock defies Sell-in-May and which capitulates? 10 years of data in a direct comparison against the S&P 500.
April 10, 2026
TSLA
Market Outlook
Sell in May 2026 — Does the Strategy Still Work After 130 Years?
Sell in May 2026: Does the most famous seasonality strategy still work? 130 years of S&P 500 data paint a clear — but nuanced — picture.
April 8, 2026
^GSPC
Market Outlook
Midterm Years and Drawdowns: Why 2026 Is Historically the Riskiest Cycle Year
Midterm years show the deepest drawdown in the presidential cycle. 130 years of Dow Jones data: what 2026 as a midterm year means for investors.
April 1, 2026
^DJI
Market Outlook
Turn of Month March → April: Why the DAX Is Seasonally Strong Right Now
The DAX turn of month from March to April shows a win rate of 75% with a +1.37% return. Statistical analysis with significance test and 20 years of data.
March 31, 2026
^GDAXI
Market Outlook
April 2026: What Does Seasonality Say for the S&P 500?
Seasonal outlook for April 2026 in the S&P 500: historical win rate, average return, and presidential cycle influence — 20 years of data under the microscope.
March 27, 2026
^GSPC